The Official 2015 Oscar Discussion/Contest Thread

[Still Servant]

Well, it's getting to be that time of year again. Once the year changes, that's when we start really turning our attention to Oscar season. Oscar nominations don't come out until January 15, but I thought we could get some conversation and predictions going before that.

Once we have the official list of nominations, we will change the name of the thread and start taking submissions. You have until showtime on February 22, 2015 to get your picks in, so there's no rush. Here are the rules just to refresh some memories:

This is the sixth year I'm running the Oscar contest. We had 9 participants last year, which is good, but I still think we can do better. Especially if Feev graces us with his presence this year. We always have a lot of fun predicting the winners and seeing who comes out on top. It's just for fun.

IMPORTANT: Don't forget the tie breaker. It's simple: Basically, everybody will submit their choices like usual, except they will also add which film they think will win the most Oscars and give a number. In case of a tie, who ever has the closest number without going over is the winner.

Predictions have to be in by showtime, so there is no rush to post them. We still have a few months until Oscar night. I myself will be waiting for the last possible moment to post my predictions. I still have films to watch, buzz to follow and articles to read.

Remember, these are just educated guesses. None of us have seen every film nominated and I doubt if anybody has seen any of the documentary short subject nominees. Just make an educated guess. Or an uneducated guess.

Best Picture

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

Best Actor

Steve Carell - “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper - “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch - “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton - “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne - “The Theory of Everything”

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard - “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones - “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore - “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike - “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon - “Wild”

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall - “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke - “Boyhood”
Edward Norton - “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo - “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons - “Whiplash”

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette - “Boyhood”
Laura Dern - “Wild”
Keira Knightley - “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone - “Birdman”
Meryl Streep - “Into the Woods”

Best Director

Alejandro González Iñárritu - “Birdman”
Richard Linklater - “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller - “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson - “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum - “The Imitation Game”

Best Animated Feature Film

“Big Hero 6″
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2″
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”

Best Adapted Screenplay

“American Sniper”
“The Imitation Game”
“Inherent Vice”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

Best Original Screenplay

“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Nightcrawler”

Best Cinematography

“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Ida”
“Mr. Turner”
“Unbroken”

Best Visual Effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
“Interstellar”
“X-Men: Days of Future Past”

Best Documentary Feature

“Citizenfour”
“Finding Vivian Maier”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Virunga”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1″
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper”
“White Earth”

Best Film Editing

“American Sniper”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Whiplash”

Best Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
“Glory,” from “Selma”
“Grateful,” from “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars,” from “Begin Again”

Best Production Design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Into the Woods”
“Mr. Turner”

Best Live Action Short Film

“Aya”
“Boogaloo and Graham”
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)”
“Parvaneh”
“The Phone Call”

Best Animated Short Film

“The Bigger Picture”
“The Dam Keeper”
“Feast”
“Me and my Moulton”
“A Single Life”

Best Sound Editing

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”

Best Sound Mixing

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
“Whiplash”

Best Costume Design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Inherent Vice”
“Into the Woods”
“Maleficent”
“Mr. Turner”

Best Foreign Language Film

“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Tangerines”
“Timbuktu”
“Wild Tales”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”

Best Original Score

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Mr. Turner”
“The Theory of Everything”

Past results:

2010 results
Heather - 15
Servant - 14
Turtlex - 14
Cody - 8
Seymour - 8
Odetta - 4

2011 results
Heather - 17
Servant - 15
Path - 14
Mattrick - 14
Ricky - 12
Merlin - 11
Feev - 8

2012 results
Servant - 14
Heather - 14
Ricky - 14
Stockerlone - 12
Shannon - 11
Thorin- 10
Mattrick - 9
Feev - 8
Garrell - 8
Odetta - 5
Mystima - 4

2013 results
Heather - 20
Servant - 17
Ricky - 15
Matt - 14
Stockerlone - 13
Feev - 12
Pablo - 10

2014 results
Heather - 22
Ricky - 20
Servant - 19
Randall - 16
Pablo - 13
Matt - 10
Mystima - 10
Merlin - 7
Stockerlone - 6

[Mattrick]

To quote Ludacris...I'm comin for that number one spot!

[Heather19]

I think I should become a professional Oscar predictor I think last year I only got one wrong. I'm pretty out of the loop at the moment, I doubt I've seen any of the films yet, and I don't even know what's nominated for the Golden Globes

[mae]

I'm surprised I only participated in the last two, and did pretty poorly, too

[Ricky]

I think I should become a professional Oscar predictor I think last year I only got one wrong. I'm pretty out of the loop at the moment, I doubt I've seen any of the films yet, and I don't even know what's nominated for the Golden Globes

Guys, don't let her fool you! Her "I'm pretty out of the loop" comment is all part of her plan! She wants us to think that she's out of the loop. That way we all feel confident right before she swoops in and takes the win!

[fernandito]

LOL @ Heather trying to lull us into a false sense of security.

WE KNOW YOUR GAME WENCH.

And Mike, I promise you I'll play this year...

...

[Still Servant]

I'm pretty out of the loop at the moment, I doubt I've seen any of the films yet, and I don't even know what's nominated for the Golden Globes

That's what you said last year.

I hardly ever lose these things to my friends and family, so this is an odd feeling.

[Still Servant]

Note: These are my picks for my favorite performances of the year. These are not who I think will be nominated. Many of the actors I list will not come anywhere close to Oscar consideration. Sadly. Also, keep in mind that I have not seen every film this year.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt - Into the Woods
Mackenzie Foy - Interstellar
Emma Stone - Birdman
Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer
Naomi Watts - St. Vincent

Best Supporting Actor

Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Andy Serkis - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Best Actress

Amy Adams - Big Eyes
Essie Davis - The Babadook
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Shailene Woodley - The Fault In Our Stars

Best Actor

Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Tom Hardy - The Drop
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

[fernandito]

I don't know how her competition fared but Rosamund Pike absolutely deserves to be on the shortlist for best actress.

She was so fucking creepy in Gone Girl.

[Still Servant]

I don't know how her competition fared but Rosamund Pike absolutely deserves to be on the shortlist for best actress.

She was so fucking creepy in Gone Girl.

Totally agree. It sounds like Julianne Moore will win for Still Alice. I haven't seen it though.

[fernandito]

Is anyone planning on watching American Sniper?

My sister watched it 2 weeks ago and she would not shut up about it.

[Still Servant]

Is anyone planning on watching American Sniper?

My sister watched it 2 weeks ago and she would not shut up about it.

Oh yeah. Really looking forward to it. The trailer made it seem like it was getting a Christmas release, so I was already planning on going the 26th. Instead, it was just limited. Usually a trailer will say something like, "Opens Christmas day, everywhere January 15th." Or something along those lines. I also want to see A Most Violent Year.

[Merlin1958]

As per tradition, I will post a $25 donation to the HF in the winners name.

[Still Servant]

As per tradition, I will post a $25 donation to the HF in the winners name.

Thank you for your contribution!

[Ricky]

I'm not too interested in American Sniper, but really want to see Still Alice (and Cake, too).

[Still Servant]

You're probably going to have to find those elsewhere. Especially Cake.

[Mattrick]

I'll see American Sniper in theatres for sure.

[Shannon]

I'm in. By the way, for all you downloaders out there, the majority of the screeners became available yesterday and today.

Speaking of which, just just just finished Whiplash. Holy. Shit.

[Heather19]

I'm pretty out of the loop at the moment, I doubt I've seen any of the films yet, and I don't even know what's nominated for the Golden Globes

That's what you said last year.

I hardly ever lose these things to my friends and family, so this is an odd feeling.

I know. I feel like over the recent years there's very little publicity for the films, or they're just in limited release so I never hear about them except for people mentioning them here. I just had to go look up what Whiplash, Foxcatcher, and Birdman were about And honestly they don't sound all that appealing to me. Maybe I'll watch some when they get released on dvd. I know I've complained about this last year too, but I really wish they would nominate some mainstream movies, or at least release a lot of these earlier on so people can watch them. It's hard to route for anything when it's films you've barely heard about. Also the other thing that really peeves me, is that it's the same actors that get nominated every time. I'd love it if Essie Davis gets nominated for The Babadook, or even if the film gets nominated, but I know that'll never happen. It's a shame, because I'd say the film is more a dark emotional drama disguised as a horror film. If there were no supernatural element to it, then it'd have Oscar written all over it.

[mae]

I'd love it if Essie Davis gets nominated for The Babadook, or even if the film gets nominated, but I know that'll never happen. It's a shame, because I'd say the film is more a dark emotional drama disguised as a horror film. If there were no supernatural element to it, then it'd have Oscar written all over it.

Kathy Bates won an Oscar for a horror movie, essentially.

[Ricky]

You're probably going to have to find those elsewhere. Especially Cake.

Hmm, I don't know. I think it depends on how well they do with nominations (Best Actress noms. seem most likely). If they get some more attention, they might get a wider release. Otherwise, I'll just wait for DVD.

And honestly they don't sound all that appealing to me.

I know how you feel. There are always some films that get Oscar buzz (or even nominated) that I'm just not interested in seeing, no matter how much attention they're getting. But then again, there are some films that I watch only because they were nominated, and I end up loving them.

I really wish they would nominate some mainstream movies, or at least release a lot of these earlier on so people can watch them.

Agree with both of those points. I think more people need to realize that a good movie doesn't have to be one that Means Something Important. A great movie can just be something fun and enjoyable. For example, there are great action films, comedies, horrors, etc. that are great because they excel within their genres at the jobs they set out to do--to excite, make you laugh, make you scared, etc. Unfortunately, a lot of the people in the Academy don't seem to realize this and, as a result, most mainstream films aren't even acknowledged.

And yeah, like you said, it would be nice if it wasn't pretty much the same actors getting nominated every year.

[Heather19]

I'd love it if Essie Davis gets nominated for The Babadook, or even if the film gets nominated, but I know that'll never happen. It's a shame, because I'd say the film is more a dark emotional drama disguised as a horror film. If there were no supernatural element to it, then it'd have Oscar written all over it.

Kathy Bates won an Oscar for a horror movie, essentially.

You're right, I forgot about that one. It's definitely in the minority though. I was just looking it up and found this interesting article. http://www.moviesonline.ca/14-oscar-...horror-movies/ So out of the 14 films on the list, most only got nominated and won in categories like special effects, makeup, and sound categories. And out of the ones that were nominated for the top awards like film or actors, I wouldn't even classify half of them as horror, such as Jaws and The Silence of the Lambs.

The article also mentions an interesting fact. It's a few years old I believe, but I bet it's very similar.

The Los Angeles Times did a fantastic piece on the Oscars exposing that of their over 5,700 voting members nearly 94% are Caucasian and 77% male and that the average age is 62. People under 50 are less then 14% of the membership.

Well I think this easily explains why it's always the same types of films that get nominated, and the same people. The academy definitely has their favorites. Maybe they should switch it up a bit. It'd be refreshing, and I think would appeal to a much wider audience.

[fernandito]

I really wish they would nominate some mainstream movies, or at least release a lot of these earlier on so people can watch them.

Agree with both of those points. I think more people need to realize that a good movie doesn't have to be one that Means Something Important. A great movie can just be something fun and enjoyable. For example, there are great action films, comedies, horrors, etc. that are great because they excel within their genres at the jobs they set out to do--to excite, make you laugh, make you scared, etc. Unfortunately, a lot of the people in the Academy don't seem to realize this and, as a result, most mainstream films aren't even acknowledged.

Agree, so long as the film is deserving of the nomination.

Unfortunately, the Academy is an organization just like any other organization with a certain reputation to uphold, and as such they will vote for films they feel best represent those ideals, however rigid they may be. That's why a film like The Dark Knight was not even considered even though it was one of the best films of 2008, and whose influence has been widespread, spilling across to other genres and franchises.

[Mattrick]

The Dark Knight wasn't nominated solely based on the then 5 nomination system. The Dark Knight was the reason they expanded the best picture nominations in 2009. If it weren't for The Dark Knight, Inception and District 9 wouldn't have gotten nominations. The Dark Knight was a martyr.

[Mattrick]

And Heather, this has been a very strong year for film considering how weak it was shaping up to look. Whiplash is fucking amazing (stress each of these four words, getting louder each word until you're screaming AMAZING). A lot of the great films have been dicked around with limited releases which is a travesty. Let's wait and see what films get released where next Friday.