The 2009 Oscars! Who should win what?

[fernandito]

The Oscars for 2009 is right around the corner, and I'm sure many people here have different opinions on which movie should win what award.

I'm going to reserve my nominations for the moment (though some of you might be able to guess them ).

The biggest categories are :


Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor


So, what do you guys think? Who should win what?

[turtlex]

I'm headed to see Milk this weekend, so will put my picks after seeing that ( since many predictions which have already been made indicate many wins for this film ).

For inclusion sake - lets also include Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress ( though it looks to be slim pickings this year for both ).

My one prediction - which will likely not change, ever - Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight, Best Actor In A Supporting Role.

[fernandito]

"They" keep saying that Australia will be a serious contender for BP 2009, but I don't know too much about it outside of the fact that Jackman and Kidman are starring in it. When is this being released? Or has it been released already?

[turtlex]

Austrailia - Released last weekend, it's getting mediocre reviews - I think it will suck. But, that's just me.

Kidman = over-rated actress.

ETA : I don't think it has a shot at Best Picture.

[fernandito]

Jackman = over rated actor

Oh, and I think Best Visual Effects and Best Costume Design should definitely go to Iron Man - Stan Winston (R.I.P) created a masterpiece of a suit, and Favreau and his boys did a great job of bringing the suit to life with all the gizmos and the high powered repulsor blasts.

(nerdgasm)

[Brice]

I am just surprised there isn't a poll with these two options:


1.
HEATH LEDGER!!!1

2. someone else

[turtlex]

Jackman = over rated actor

Oh, and I think Best Visual Effects and Best Costume Design should definitely go to Iron Man - Stan Winston (R.I.P) created a masterpiece of a suit, and Favreau and his boys did a great job of bringing the suit to life with all the gizmos and the high powered repulsor blasts.

(nerdgasm)

You know, my feelings about Jackman are .. he is what he is. He's a fairly good actor, who plays Wolverine really well.

Honestly, I think Austrailia is going to bore me to tears. It looks like a yawner that they're trying to pass off as an action-adventure-love-story. Yeah, that'll work.

I did enjoy Iron Man... a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if Downey Jr is nominated. The Academy seems to like him ( ie - the surprise nomination for Chaplin ).

[Brice]

Feev's nominations-

Best Picture-The Dark Knight
Best Director-Whoever directed it
Best Actor-Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actor-Heath Ledger
Best Choreography-The Dark Knight
Best Cinematography-The Dark Knight
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress-Noone deserves it so we'll just give Heath those awards too.

[turtlex]

FYI :

Thursday, January 22, 2009: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PT, Samuel Goldwyn Theater - ( I don't know if it's ironic or what, but this is also the first anniversary of Heath's passing )

Saturday, February 7, 2009: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation

Sunday, February 22, 2009: 81st Annual Academy Awards presentation

[sarah]

I hear Kate Winslet (whom I love) is supposed to be really good in revolutionary road.

I also want to see The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,The Reader, and Doubt.

[turtlex]

Benjamin Button is getting very good advanced word. I am looking forward to that myself.

I can't think of 5 great female performances this year, so Winslet might be golden!

[Still Servant]

It's a little early to be giving Oscar predictions, since most of the big Oscar contenders have yet to be released. I'll take a swing at it anyway. It will be fun to look back on it when the show rolls around. In bold is what I think will win:

Best Picture

The Wrestler
Australia
The Dark Knight
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk

Best Actor

Will Smith - Seven Pounds
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Sean Penn - Milk

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
James Franco - Milk
Josh Brolin - Milk
Jaime Fox - The Soloist

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Kiera Knightley - The Duchess
Kate Winslett - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress

Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Cate Blanchet - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This should be an interesting year, a lot of the films that were supposed to be Oscar worthy got critically panned. Best supporting actor should be really interesting. Ledger will win it, but I think Robert Downey Jr. will be a surprise nomination..

I know pretty much everybody on this site hated that film (surprising to me) but RDJ was great in it.

I'm not sure how many of you have heard about The Wrestler, but it's supposed to be an amazing movie. Check out the trailer when you get the chance, you will instantly want to catch that film.

[turtlex]

Okay, this is going to be my favorite thread, I'm pretty sure.

Great predictions, SS.

However, I think it will be a cold day when Mickey Rourke wins an Oscar. Not saying it wouldn't be deserved, but I'd be mighty surprised.

I like the prediction of Robert Downey Jr up for Best Supporting, but still think he's got a shot at Best Actor. At least at being nominated. That would be the surprise.

Better say this now - I don't think Will Smith can act. Like, at all. Pursuit of Happyness was a piece of crap and it was his fault. He was horrible in that and I couldn't believe they nominated him. It's almost like the Academy wants to give him an award. Please, don't do it.

I would love to see Anne Hathaway get nominated - but I predict, of those you've listed - Angie will take it. Clint just seems to be on a bender with directing women to Oscars.

I think Austrailia is going to be a throw away. Waste of a nom, but you're probably right in all the places you've named it. I'm completely NOT impressed with Nicole Kidman.

I'm picking Sean Penn for Best Actor. I think this is his year. Finally.

I plan on seeing Milk this weekend, and maybe Changeling as well.

I love award release season !!!

ETA : I've heard good things about The Wrestler as well, and about MR. I'm hoping to catch it.

[Still Servant]

Thanks, Turtle. I also love awards season. I try to see as many films as I can, which is kind of hard sometimes because most theater's don't want to show some of the smaller films.

How can they when Twilight, High School Musical 3 and Madagascar 2 are in three theaters each?

I know Mickey Rourke might have screwed himself out of an Oscar with his troubled past, but he's getting tons of publicity right now. He has multi-paged articles about him in EW and Maxim. (What? I had to buy it, new Bond girl Olga Kurylenko is on the cover.)

I think the whole "one time star down on his luck returns from troubled past" is really in right now. A perfect example is Robert Downey Jr.

I agree with you on Australia. Every year there is an overrated film that seems to rake in tons of noms and I scratch my head. Australia might be that film this year.

I disagree with you about Will Smith. I think he better be careful. People are starting to hate him like they hate Tom Cruise. I'm not quite sure why.

[sarah]

The reviews for Australia are coming out and the movie is getting mixed review However, Nicole Kidman is getting trashed. I'm surprised at that. Doesn't she usually get good reviews for her performances?

[turtlex]

Thanks, Turtle. I also love awards season. I try to see as many films as I can, which is kind of hard sometimes because most theater's don't want to show some of the smaller films.

How can they when Twilight, High School Musical 3 and Madagascar 2 are in three theaters each?

I know Mickey Rourke might have screwed himself out of an Oscar with his troubled past, but he's getting tons of publicity right now. He has multi-paged articles about him in EW and Maxim. (What? I had to buy it, new Bond girl Olga Kurylenko is on the cover.)

I think the whole "one time star down on his luck returns from troubled past" is really in right now. A perfect example is Robert Downey Jr.

I agree with you on Australia. Every year there is an overrated film that seems to rake in tons of noms and I scratch my head. Australia might be that film this year.

I disagree with you about Will Smith. I think he better be careful. People are starting to hate him like they hate Tom Cruise. I'm not quite sure why.

I, too, have to hunt down the smaller films. My local theater has Twilight on three screens and they're just opening Changeling. Now, Changeling is a major release with a name star and director, I can't imagine how hard it's going to be to find The Wrestler! I might have to venture into Philadelphia to see it, which turns into quite an ordeal - with driving to the city ( about an hour away ), finding the theater, paying to park, paying high prices to see the movie and then there's the gas... I hope to be able to stay as local as possible this movie season.

I am lucky, though, that there's a small art house type of theater about half an hour away - the only problem is, they typically book a film for as many as three weeks, so the selection isn't as wide ranging as I'd like.

I do like Mickey R, actually. I think his personal life got in the way of his acting. I would love to see him nominated, I would love that!

: The Pope of Greenwich Village is one of my fav movies :

I know a lot of folks love Will Smith, I just have never seen him act in any film he's been in. He's just there as himself, it seems to me. I loved him in Independence Day. That movie was exactly what it was - an action packed ride. No pretense, no attempt at being deep. He carried that with his charisma and presence, he just didn't do any acting.

maer - Yeah, the Academy and critics usually love Nicole Kidman. She's got the Oscar and all, but I've heard nothing really positive about Austrailia. Even when it was filming, things were coming out about how bad it was. That, and the fact they were tweaking it until two days before release - never a good sign. I've never been a big Nicole fan, I think she peaked with Dead Calm and BMX Bandits, actually.

I would like to throw out a couple more predictions, if I may :

W, though not a box office success, got a lot of good reviews for the acting. I predict Richard Dreyfuss will be nominated for his take on Chaney, in the Best Supporting Catagory ( no, he won't win - I still say that's going to Heath ). I think also, that Josh Brolin has a shot at a Best Actor nod for W as well. I also heard that Thandie was great as Condie and since the female catagories seem to be lacking this year - I wouldn't be surprised to see her nominated.

[fernandito]

Thought you guys might want to see this -

Australia Review
Baz Luhrmann's latest is an epic ... fail.
by Jim Vejvoda

November 26, 2008 - Australia, director Baz Luhrmann's highly anticipated follow-up to 2001's Moulin Rogue!, is an epic retelling of events set in the country's northern frontier from the late 1930s to early '40s. Part Western, part war film, and part fairy tale, Luhrmann's epic focuses on the unlikely romance between an English aristocrat and a rough-hewn cowboy in the days before the nation entered World War II.

After arriving in Australia to confront her wealthy husband about suspected infidelity, Lady Sarah Ashley (Nicole Kidman) instead finds out that he has been murdered and his ranch, Faraway Downs, threatened with ruin. In order to save Faraway Downs, Sarah hires the enigmatic Drover (Hugh Jackman), the best horseman around, to drive 1500 head of cattle across the brutal outback to market for the army to buy. Sarah and the Drover eventually fall for one another despite hailing from two different worlds.

As Sarah comes to love both the Drover and her newfound homeland, she also becomes surrogate mother to Nullah (newcomer Brandon Walters), a part-Aborigine, part-white child whose mother works at Faraway Downs. The policy of that time was for mixed race children to be rounded up and institutionalized so they could become more white. Sarah protects Nullah from this for as long as she can, but his grandfather is King George (David Gulpilil) who is accused of killing none other than Sarah's husband.

Sarah, Drover and Nullah form their own little family, but they will soon be torn apart by the machinations of rival cattleman King Carney (Bryan Brown) and his scheming station manager Neil Fletcher (David Wenham), who are out to grab Faraway Downs for themselves, as well as by Australia's impending war with Japan.

Crikey, Australia is a bloody mess -- a sprawling schlockfest that feels as long as a flight from L.A. to Sydney. It is truly shocking just how bad Australia can be when it is clearly such a labor of love. Adding to the frustration and disappointment is the fact the film dramatizes real-life tragedies -- the Stolen Generations, the bombing of Darwin -- which don't resonate as much as they should. And Luhrmann's stabs at Moulin Rouge-style zany comedy early on is jarring given the film's overall serious nature.

Alternately campy and melodramatic, the kitschy Australia is a movie about movies, specifically the big and often bloated historical epics of the Golden Age of Hollywood. It is a patchwork of homages to classics, everything from The African Queen and Gone With the Wind to Red River and From Here to Eternity. (The Wizard of Oz actually plays a big part in the story.) Jackman looks eerily similar to Clint Eastwood at times, channeling both the Man With No Name and Two Mules for Sister Sara. Such direct nods to past films undermine the production design's efforts at historical authenticity and, along with some less than stellar CG effects and the aforementioned moments of comedy, add to the overall artificiality of the whole piece.

None of the characters feel real; they are all just archetypes or, worse, stereotypes. Jackman is the iconic Western hero with a dark past; Kidman is the prissy and cultured fish out of water (didn't she already play this role in Far and Away?); Wenham is the dastardly villain who does everything but twirl his mustache and tie the damsel to train tracks; and Walters and David Gulpilil's characters border on the racial stereotypes of "the magic black man" (one character practically uses The Force to stop a cattle stampede) and "the noble savage". There's even a Rio Bravo-esque drunkard who must rise to the occasion to help the heroes.

Jackman and Walters do what they can to imbue their characters with soul and humanity despite being written more as symbols than people. Luhrmann seems to be the only director to get some life out of Kidman on-screen, but a colleague of mine rightly pointed out that it's only because he has her mug for the camera. Wenham starts out all right, but the more corrupt his character becomes the hammier his performance gets. It was nice to see Bryan Brown again, considering he was sort of the Hugh Jackman of his day. It's too bad they didn't have more (and better) scenes together.

There are moments in the first half of its nearly three hour running time when Australia works -- and there is some truly beautiful cinematography throughout -- but the movie simply drags on and on, becoming hokier and more boring as it goes. Australia would have been better had it focused more on one particular storyline -- and settled on a consistent tone -- than to pack in so many elements and not serve any of them well.

[turtlex]

Boy, it's scary when they compare Nicole's character to one she played in .... Far and Away!! Well, at least they didn't compare it to Days of Thunder.

Gee, color me not surprised. Guess what I won't be going to see ... Yeah.

[turtlex]

Well, I completely bailed on going to the movies this past weekend. Will try again this upcoming. I've lots on my "to see" list.

[Seymour_Glass]

It's a little early to be giving Oscar predictions, since most of the big Oscar contenders have yet to be released. I'll take a swing at it anyway. It will be fun to look back on it when the show rolls around. In bold is what I think will win:

Best Picture

The Wrestler
Australia
The Dark Knight
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk

Best Actor

Will Smith - Seven Pounds
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Sean Penn - Milk

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
James Franco - Milk
Josh Brolin - Milk
Jaime Fox - The Soloist

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Kiera Knightley - The Duchess
Kate Winslett - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress

Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Cate Blanchet - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This should be an interesting year, a lot of the films that were supposed to be Oscar worthy got critically panned. Best supporting actor should be really interesting. Ledger will win it, but I think Robert Downey Jr. will be a surprise nomination..

I know pretty much everybody on this site hated that film (surprising to me) but RDJ was great in it.

I'm not sure how many of you have heard about The Wrestler, but it's supposed to be an amazing movie. Check out the trailer when you get the chance, you will instantly want to catch that film.

I think Leo DiCaprio's gonna get nominated again over Clint.
And, despite how brilliant he was, no way is RDJ getting nomed.
Fincher's gonna win Best Director over Nolan, whether Benjamin Button is better than TDK or not.

[turtlex]

Wow, I think I might disagree about RDJ. The academy seems to like him, and he completely made Iron Man.

The Independent Spirit Award Nominees have been announced. There are lots of limits on budgets, etc, for getting a nom.

FEATURE
"Ballast"
"Frozen River"
"Rachel Getting Married"
"Wendy and Lucy"
"The Wrestler"

FEMALE LEAD
Summer Bishil, "Towelhead"
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" [pictured]
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Tarra Riggs, "Ballast"
Michelle Williams, "Wendy and Lucy"

MALE LEAD
Javier Bardem, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

SUPPORTING MALE
James Franco, "Milk"
Anthony Mackie, "The Hurt Locker"
Charlie McDermott, "Frozen River"
Jim Myron Ross, "Ballast"
Haaz Sleiman, "The Visitor"

SUPPORTING FEMALE
Penélope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Rosemarie DeWitt, "Rachel Getting Married"
Rosie Perez, "The Take"
Misty Upham, "Frozen River"
Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"

DIRECTOR
Ramin Bahrani, "Chop Shop"
Jonathan Demme, "Rachel Getting Married"
Lance Hammer, "Ballast"
Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"
Tom McCarthy, "The Visitor"

[turtlex]

And the first actual awards are in... The National Board of Review has choosen the following :

Awards for 2008:

Best Film
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Top Ten Films
(In alphabetical order) BURN AFTER READING, CHANGELING, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, THE DARK KNIGHT, DEFIANCE, FROST/NIXON, GRAN TORINO, MILK, WALL-E, THE WRESTLER

Best Foreign Language Film
MONGOL

Best Documentary
MAN ON WIRE

Best Actor
CLINT EASTWOOD, Gran Torino

Best Actress
ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor
JOSH BROLIN, Milk

Best Supporting Actress
PENELOPE CRUZ, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Ensemble Cast
DOUBT

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor
DEV PATEL, Slumdog Millionaire

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress
VIOLA DAVIS, Doubt

Best Director
DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Directorial Debut
COURTNEY HUNT, Frozen River

Best Adapted Screenplay
SIMON BEAUFOY, Slumdog Millionaire and ERIC ROTH, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Spotlight Award
MELISSA LEO, Frozen River and RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor

Best Original Screenplay
NICK SCHENK, Gran Torino

Best Animated Feature
WALL-E

[turtlex]

Congratulations, Heath !

"The late Australian actor Heath Ledger was awarded one of his country's most prestigious film awards for his final role as The Joker in the Batman movie "The Dark Knight."

Ledger, 28, who died of an accidental overdose of painkillers and other medicines in his New York apartment 11 months ago, was posthumously awarded the AFI (Australian Film Institute) international award for best actor.

Guests at a packed awards ceremony in Melbourne's Princess Theater rose to their feet clapping, but with some in tears, to pay tribute to the actor."

To be on topic about this - I think he really will only get nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. And... I think he'll get it.

[fernandito]

He WILL win it!

[turtlex]

If I had a vote, and I sooooo wish I did, he'd get mine.

Though, I was surprised to see Josh Brolin take the award at the National Board of Review.