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Thread: 2010s Movie Tournament Predictions

  1. #1
    Going Slap Happy Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick's Avatar

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    Default 2010s Movie Tournament Predictions

    Link: https://forms.gle/KuuhzNkZ8KuzTyRC7
    Deadline: July 31st

    This will only take as long as you want to think about it, really. I expect it would take about 10-15 minutes to fill out, but 30 or more if you really want to deliberate on it.


    Rules

    The rules are simple. It's similar to filling out a bracket, only you have more flexibility since there are no specific match ups. You select which films will be in what round, and if you guess a film right, you get a fixed number of points, starting from the Round of 16 (16 films remaining). The idea is to predict the films which will perform the best.

    Once you select your 16 films, you can only select from those 16 films for the rest of the rounds. You can go back and forth between pages on the forms, but you may wish to write them down somewhere so it's easier to keep track.


    Scoring

    Round of 16 - 1 pt per correct film, 1 bonus pt per 4 films correct (Round = 20 pts)
    Quarter Finals - 2 pts per correct film (Round = 16 pts)
    Semi Finals - 3 pts per correct film (Round = 12 pts)
    Finals - 4 pts per correct film (Round = 8 pts)
    Winner - 6 pts
    Back up Winner - 3 pts


    Insurance Films

    The Round of 16 section will have 10 backup films worth no points. These will replace films in your final 16 that do not make it that far, yet will not score you points unless they advance to the next round, when they then can earn full points. This is to help people stay in it with such a broad field if they have a disastrous opening round. Insurance films which are used earn no points in the round of 16, but they do contribute to the bonus pts in the Round of 16, so if you get 7 correct films and a replacement bumps you up to 8, it earned you a bonus pt.

    - In order for a film to be replaced by an Insurance film, it must have made the Round of 32 to be eligible. If you picked The Force Awakens, John Wick Chapter 2, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk to make the round of 16 (the rest of your picks made the round of 16), but only only Dunkirk was in the previous round of 32, that is the only film that can be replaced by a backup.

    - Insurance Films have to still be alive to count, naturally.

    - Highest # of Insurance Film will take top priority, so if you have two eligible back ups, but only one spot that can be filled, what you selected for Insurance #3 will be slotted in over your surviving Insurance #7. The Insurance film will replace whichever slot was filled by your best performing film...so which ever one advanced the furthest OR earned the most votes in the previous round.

    This might seem confusing, but it's more important that I understand it than anyone else. But it's all out and transparent so no shenanigans can happen either. I will fully explain to each of you exactly why what film replaced what film when/if that time comes. I will put an example of how this would work at the bottom of this OP

    Backup Winner

    Though only worth half the pts, getting the backup winner may make all the difference. The backup winner can be any nominated film (though likely one you previously chose) EXCEPT for the other film you selected for the final two films. If you backup winner happens to also be an insurance pick that found it's way into the finals, your backup winner becomes void.


    Tips

    These are just a few things I suggest participants keep in mind since I believe this tournament will be extremely difficult to predict.

    - With a field of 320 films, that's a lot of films to narrow it down to 26 total choices. I would advise you to go through the nominations list in the Nominations Thread and make a short list of 30-50 films you expect to go far, and parse it from there.

    - It may also be easier to work backwards, to start from your projected finalists/semi-finalists

    - Films higher on the seconded list may be more likely to advance to the final 16 films than films near the bottom, but who knows!

    - It may be smart to make your insurance picks very diverse in terms of genre and content.

    - Mainstream films are likely to get more votes simply because more people have seen them so that's something to keep in mind. On the flipside, if you're active in the Film Forum you might know of certain films which are much beloved by many members while not necessarily be mainstream, but will be more likely to get the vote once the tournament hits crunch time.

    - Unlike previous tournaments where we were dealing with things like childhood favourites, nostalgia, beloved classics, legacy franchises, seminal films, films that influenced voters or made them fall in love with film...I noticed a distinct lack of franchises in the nominations, strange considering how big franchises are now. Even films from beloved franchises like The MCU and Star Wars are less guaranteed to make the final 16 than say Star Wars, Indiana Jones or Back to the Future were almost guaranteed to be represented in the final 16 of the 1980s tournament. Essentially, because these films are more recent and likely few have been watched by anyone in the double digits like say Empire Strikes Back or Die Hard in the 80s, this will be the hardest tournament to predict.




    Insurance Film Example

    Your 16 Picks

    1 - Skyfall (Advanced to Round of 16)
    2 - Moonlight (Advanced to Round of 16)
    3 - IT (Eliminated Round of 32)
    4 - Get Out (Eliminated Round of 32)
    5 - The Force Awakens (Eliminated Round of 64)
    6 - Avengers Endgame (Eliminated Round of 32)
    7 - John Wick (Advanced Round of 16)
    8 - La La Land (Eliminated Round of 64)
    9 - Wolf of Wall Street (Eliminated Round of 64)
    10 - Arrival (Eliminated Round of 32)
    11 - Inception (Eliminated Round of 32)
    12 - Blade Runner 2049 (Advanced Round of 16)
    13 - Green Book (Eliminated Round of 64)
    14 - The Babadook (Eliminated Round of 32)
    15 - Roma (Eliminated Round of 64)
    16 - Train to Busan (Eliminated Round of 64

    All films eliminated in the Round of 64 cannot be replaced, which leaves:

    3 - IT (Eliminated Round of 32) - 10 votes
    4 - Get Out (Eliminated Round of 32) - 8 votes
    6 - Avengers Endgame (Eliminated Round of 32) - 13 votes
    10 - Arrival (Eliminated Round of 32) - 12 votes
    11 - Inception (Eliminated Round of 32) - 14 votes
    14 - The Babadook (Eliminated Round of 32) - 9 votes


    Your Insurance Films Picks

    1 - Manchester By The Sea (Eliminated Round of 64)
    2 - Snowpiercer (Eliminated round of 32)
    3 - Captain America: Civil War (Eliminated Round of 64)
    4 - Whiplash (Advanced round of 16)
    5 - Upgrade (Eliminated Round of 32)
    6 - Mad Max: Fury Road (Advanced Round of 16)
    7 - Bridesmaids (Eliminated Round of 32)
    8 - Shape of Water (Eliminated Round of 32)
    9 - Wolf of Wall Street (Eliminated Round of 32)
    10 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Advanced round of 16)

    These are the only 3 eligible Insurance films:

    4 - Whiplash (Advanced round of 16)
    6 - Mad Max: Fury Road (Advanced Round of 16)
    10 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Advanced round of 16)

    But there are 6 slots available so the high ranked insurance film replaces the eliminated film with the most votes in the round of 32

    - Whiplash replaces Inception (14 votes)
    - Mad Max replaces Avengers Endgame (13 votes)
    - Hollywood replaces Arrival (12 votes)

    You picked Avengers Endgame to win the whole thing, so now Mad Max is your winner pick.

    I also tried to write this example to illustrate just how wide open this field is. We might see some very low scores. If this predictions pool goes over well, I'll host it as well for the next tournaments.

    GOOD LUCK!
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattrick View Post
    GOOD LUCK!
    You can say that again! I agree, I have no idea what movies will be able to make it to the last stages of the tournament, much less which will win. This will take some brains.

  3. #3
    Going Slap Happy Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick's Avatar

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    I considered picking 32 films (10%), but with the rest of the rounds that would be 61 total predictions, and that's a lot. At least with the insurance picks you don't have to do any further tinkering with those after you pick them.

    It would be one thing if we had like a week to actually fill out a bracket with the top 32 films going head-to-head to just wait and do a traditional bracket, but that's a pretty sizeable delay right in the meat of the tournament.
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  4. #4
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    Thanks for doing this, Matt. It should be a lot of fun.
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  5. #5
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    Yes, thank you.

  6. #6
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    I'll get to this in the next day or two.

  7. #7
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    That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by webstar1000 View Post
    That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?
    I guess we'll see. I haven't filled it out yet...I shall on the beach next week. But I have 1 favorite for the winner right now. It will likely either be my pick or my backup pick.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattrick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by webstar1000 View Post
    That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?
    I guess we'll see. I haven't filled it out yet...I shall on the beach next week. But I have 1 favorite for the winner right now. It will likely either be my pick or my backup pick.
    I have many as favourites... I went with the love of the group.. and with a little luck... who knows? lol
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  10. #10
    Going Slap Happy Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick has a brilliant future Mattrick's Avatar

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    I just wish I thought about doing this for the past few tournaments. Would've been cool to keep a running tally of points from tournament to tournament. Oh well, we still have more to go after this.
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  11. #11
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    I hope more
    Members take the 10-15 to do this. Too much fun!!
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  12. #12
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    Once the picks are all set can you disclose them? Curious to see what everyone selected.

  13. #13
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    I can give my Final Four.

    IT
    1922
    Gerald's Game
    Avengers: Endgame
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  14. #14
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  15. #15
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    Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by mae View Post
    Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.
    I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by mae View Post
    Once the picks are all set can you disclose them? Curious to see what everyone selected.
    I can.

    And Engame is likely a surefire top 16 but I don't even think it's the best Avengers movie let alone the best MCU movie. Endgame excelled in putting a nice little cap on all the previous MCU films, but as a film it had a lot of issues that hampered it. It's #6 in the MCU for me.
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  18. #18
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    Actually, I going to make a spreadsheet for everyone's picks that I'll update at the end of each round.
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by webstar1000 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mae View Post
    Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.
    I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.
    Me too. My picks would be vastly different. That said, I still had a hard time choosing films.
    Only the gentle are ever really strong.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heather19 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by webstar1000 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mae View Post
    Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.
    I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.
    Me too. My picks would be vastly different. That said, I still had a hard time choosing films.
    Yeah me too. I thought of all my film pals here... then choose accordingly. MY list would be VERY diff. haha
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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattrick View Post
    Actually, I going to make a spreadsheet for everyone's picks that I'll update at the end of each round.
    It's a Google Form, so you can pull a full report of everyone's selections. You can then share the sheet with us just like we do with the Google Sheet we use to keep track of nominations.
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  22. #22
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    The forms spreadsheets are all backwards though. Easier to do it vertically rather than horizontal how forms makes their sheets.
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  23. #23
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    I won't get that done until I'm back from vacation.
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  24. #24
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    Im going to extend the deadline if people need more time. Another week or so.
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  25. #25
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    Bumping this since it's likely to be buried anytime.

    Deadline is extended until Friday (Aug 6th?) so get them in if you haven't. I'll get a spreadsheet up this coming weekend if I can.
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