The *declining* Stephen King Market

[Mr. Rabbit Trick]

Make hay while the sun shines. According to the experts, the next global recession will soon be here. (Don't shoot the messenger)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/next-financial-crisis-2020-recession-world-markets-jpmorgan-a8540341.html

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2018/04/global-recession-around-corner

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

[Br!an]

I suppose the people responsible for economic crashes could be considered experts. :orely:

[Merlin1958]

Make hay while the sun shines. According to the experts, the next global recession will soon be here. (Don't shoot the messenger)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/next-financial-crisis-2020-recession-world-markets-jpmorgan-a8540341.html

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2018/04/global-recession-around-corner

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini


But I wanna shoot him!!!!! Pleaasseee, let me shoot him??? lol

[peripheral]

I'm not sure what it finally went for, but I think it was listed for around $45k? (I could be wrong on that figure, but I don't think its was south of this).

http://www.thedarktower.org/gallery/data/500/medium/Screen_Shot_2018-11-02_at_8_48_18_pm.png

[Kingfan24]

The king market is a huge bubble and we would be foolish to believe otherwise. Either way buying books as “investment” is a poor idea u less you have truly one of a kind items with some historical significance.

[Father Cody]

The king market is a huge bubble and we would be foolish to believe otherwise. Either way buying books as “investment” is a poor idea u less you have truly one of a kind items with some historical significance.

According to RF’s spreadsheet toward the top of the thread, it seems the bubble has been in effect since at least 2005. I was leaning toward your opinion until I saw that. Unless you’re saying you think the bubble isn’t likely going to pop for a long time? In that case it may very well be a good short term investment. Who the hell knows, though...

[Robert Fulman]

Buying books is a ridiculously bad investment strategy. The best case scenario is something like The Gunslinger S/L. It was $60 in 1982, and let's say it's worth $7,500 now. That's an average annual return of (7500/60)^(1/36) - 1, or 14.4%; the spreadsheet at the beginning greatly overstates the average return. Getting a 14% return over 36 years is a great investment, but that's the best case scenario, and it can't keep up at that rate. If the value kept growing at the rate for the next 36 years, DT1 would be worth $937,500 in 2054. I don't see that happening. Fact is, people who are flipping Gwendy's Button Box for $200 over list price are:

Getting a better return on investment than someone who has held onto DT1 for 36 years, and
Probably getting a better return on investment than anyone who sells Gwendy's S/L at any point in the future.

I think the bubble is still slowly expanding, and there's still a chance to make money in the short run via speculation and short-term flipping. I have a mostly-complete collection of books published by Donald M. Grant, but I don't have any of the Dark Tower S/Ls. I'm reasonably young, and I'm willing to wait the 10 to 20 years it will take for the bubble to burst. Gunslinger may never drop back down below $5,000, but the others will drop precipitously at some point. When it does, I'll be there.

[peripheral]

I'm willing to wait the 10 to 20 years it will take for the bubble to burst. Gunslinger may never drop back down below $5,000, but the others will drop precipitously at some point. When it does, I'll be there.

And just as you'll be there, waiting, of course a ton of others will be there right beside you, with your same reasons. And there we have it - demand for the product, which in turn keeps the bubble buoyant.

[webstar1000]

I'm willing to wait the 10 to 20 years it will take for the bubble to burst. Gunslinger may never drop back down below $5,000, but the others will drop precipitously at some point. When it does, I'll be there.

And just as you'll be there, waiting, of course a ton of others will be there right beside you, with your same reasons. And there we have it - demand for the product, which in turn keeps the bubble buoyant.

And that is exactly it. The market keeps going up because with the advent of all the other media’s attracting new collectors the buying pool rises while the product dwindles. Good ol supply and demand folks:)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hunchback Jack]

It's true that if supply does not meet demand, prices will continue to rise. But long term, it's not that simple. If a significant portion of the demand comes from buyers who are buying to flip, because it's a good investment, not from collectors who want items to keep, for their collection, then the market price increases beyond what it can sustain. That's a bubble, and we are definitely in a bubble, in my opinion.

That's not to say that prices won't continue to rise in the long term, just like houses now are more expensive than houses in the 1990s, despite there being two housing crises since. But there may be a correction if the prices grow too fast for too long.

Personally, I buy books to keep, so it doesn't concern me too much. I do get dismayed if I see that I could have paid much less for a book if I'd waited a year, but you can't let stuff like that spoil your enjoyment of collecting. I think collecting any author as a long term investment is risky, but King probably a better bet than most.

HBJ

[MikeDuke]

Agree with you there Jack. I don't buy to flip. I buy a S\L because I like the book or really like how it's presented. I am a long term holder. I enjoy the collecting part as well. I don't buy a book just because I think it may go up, or simply because it has King's name in it. There are a few that just don't do anything for me. I do it because I like King. I know I missed out on the great run up and most of what I have now may not move for a long time. But that's OK with me. King is still up there. I will continue to buy what I can afford and be happy. Like I said, I missed the run up for most of these books but I look at it as an oh well. I will continue to collect what seems interesting to me.