2010s Movie Tournament Predictions

[Mattrick]

Link: https://forms.gle/KuuhzNkZ8KuzTyRC7
Deadline: July 31st

This will only take as long as you want to think about it, really. I expect it would take about 10-15 minutes to fill out, but 30 or more if you really want to deliberate on it.


Rules

The rules are simple. It's similar to filling out a bracket, only you have more flexibility since there are no specific match ups. You select which films will be in what round, and if you guess a film right, you get a fixed number of points, starting from the Round of 16 (16 films remaining). The idea is to predict the films which will perform the best.

Once you select your 16 films, you can only select from those 16 films for the rest of the rounds. You can go back and forth between pages on the forms, but you may wish to write them down somewhere so it's easier to keep track.


Scoring

Round of 16 - 1 pt per correct film, 1 bonus pt per 4 films correct (Round = 20 pts)
Quarter Finals - 2 pts per correct film (Round = 16 pts)
Semi Finals - 3 pts per correct film (Round = 12 pts)
Finals - 4 pts per correct film (Round = 8 pts)
Winner - 6 pts
Back up Winner - 3 pts


Insurance Films

The Round of 16 section will have 10 backup films worth no points. These will replace films in your final 16 that do not make it that far, yet will not score you points unless they advance to the next round, when they then can earn full points. This is to help people stay in it with such a broad field if they have a disastrous opening round. Insurance films which are used earn no points in the round of 16, but they do contribute to the bonus pts in the Round of 16, so if you get 7 correct films and a replacement bumps you up to 8, it earned you a bonus pt.

- In order for a film to be replaced by an Insurance film, it must have made the Round of 32 to be eligible. If you picked The Force Awakens, John Wick Chapter 2, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk to make the round of 16 (the rest of your picks made the round of 16), but only only Dunkirk was in the previous round of 32, that is the only film that can be replaced by a backup.

- Insurance Films have to still be alive to count, naturally.

- Highest # of Insurance Film will take top priority, so if you have two eligible back ups, but only one spot that can be filled, what you selected for Insurance #3 will be slotted in over your surviving Insurance #7. The Insurance film will replace whichever slot was filled by your best performing film...so which ever one advanced the furthest OR earned the most votes in the previous round.

This might seem confusing, but it's more important that I understand it than anyone else. But it's all out and transparent so no shenanigans can happen either. I will fully explain to each of you exactly why what film replaced what film when/if that time comes. I will put an example of how this would work at the bottom of this OP

Backup Winner

Though only worth half the pts, getting the backup winner may make all the difference. The backup winner can be any nominated film (though likely one you previously chose) EXCEPT for the other film you selected for the final two films. If you backup winner happens to also be an insurance pick that found it's way into the finals, your backup winner becomes void.


Tips

These are just a few things I suggest participants keep in mind since I believe this tournament will be extremely difficult to predict.

- With a field of 320 films, that's a lot of films to narrow it down to 26 total choices. I would advise you to go through the nominations list in the Nominations Thread (https://www.thedarktower.org/palaver/showthread.php?22861-The-Great-Movie-Tournament-Nominations-Thread-2010s) and make a short list of 30-50 films you expect to go far, and parse it from there.

- It may also be easier to work backwards, to start from your projected finalists/semi-finalists

- Films higher on the seconded list may be more likely to advance to the final 16 films than films near the bottom, but who knows!

- It may be smart to make your insurance picks very diverse in terms of genre and content.

- Mainstream films are likely to get more votes simply because more people have seen them so that's something to keep in mind. On the flipside, if you're active in the Film Forum you might know of certain films which are much beloved by many members while not necessarily be mainstream, but will be more likely to get the vote once the tournament hits crunch time.

- Unlike previous tournaments where we were dealing with things like childhood favourites, nostalgia, beloved classics, legacy franchises, seminal films, films that influenced voters or made them fall in love with film...I noticed a distinct lack of franchises in the nominations, strange considering how big franchises are now. Even films from beloved franchises like The MCU and Star Wars are less guaranteed to make the final 16 than say Star Wars, Indiana Jones or Back to the Future were almost guaranteed to be represented in the final 16 of the 1980s tournament. Essentially, because these films are more recent and likely few have been watched by anyone in the double digits like say Empire Strikes Back or Die Hard in the 80s, this will be the hardest tournament to predict.




Insurance Film Example

Your 16 Picks

1 - Skyfall (Advanced to Round of 16)
2 - Moonlight (Advanced to Round of 16)
3 - IT (Eliminated Round of 32)
4 - Get Out (Eliminated Round of 32)
5 - The Force Awakens (Eliminated Round of 64)
6 - Avengers Endgame (Eliminated Round of 32)
7 - John Wick (Advanced Round of 16)
8 - La La Land (Eliminated Round of 64)
9 - Wolf of Wall Street (Eliminated Round of 64)
10 - Arrival (Eliminated Round of 32)
11 - Inception (Eliminated Round of 32)
12 - Blade Runner 2049 (Advanced Round of 16)
13 - Green Book (Eliminated Round of 64)
14 - The Babadook (Eliminated Round of 32)
15 - Roma (Eliminated Round of 64)
16 - Train to Busan (Eliminated Round of 64

All films eliminated in the Round of 64 cannot be replaced, which leaves:

3 - IT (Eliminated Round of 32) - 10 votes
4 - Get Out (Eliminated Round of 32) - 8 votes
6 - Avengers Endgame (Eliminated Round of 32) - 13 votes
10 - Arrival (Eliminated Round of 32) - 12 votes
11 - Inception (Eliminated Round of 32) - 14 votes
14 - The Babadook (Eliminated Round of 32) - 9 votes


Your Insurance Films Picks

1 - Manchester By The Sea (Eliminated Round of 64)
2 - Snowpiercer (Eliminated round of 32)
3 - Captain America: Civil War (Eliminated Round of 64)
4 - Whiplash (Advanced round of 16)
5 - Upgrade (Eliminated Round of 32)
6 - Mad Max: Fury Road (Advanced Round of 16)
7 - Bridesmaids (Eliminated Round of 32)
8 - Shape of Water (Eliminated Round of 32)
9 - Wolf of Wall Street (Eliminated Round of 32)
10 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Advanced round of 16)

These are the only 3 eligible Insurance films:

4 - Whiplash (Advanced round of 16)
6 - Mad Max: Fury Road (Advanced Round of 16)
10 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Advanced round of 16)

But there are 6 slots available so the high ranked insurance film replaces the eliminated film with the most votes in the round of 32

- Whiplash replaces Inception (14 votes)
- Mad Max replaces Avengers Endgame (13 votes)
- Hollywood replaces Arrival (12 votes)

You picked Avengers Endgame to win the whole thing, so now Mad Max is your winner pick.

I also tried to write this example to illustrate just how wide open this field is. We might see some very low scores. If this predictions pool goes over well, I'll host it as well for the next tournaments.

GOOD LUCK!

[mae]

GOOD LUCK!

You can say that again! I agree, I have no idea what movies will be able to make it to the last stages of the tournament, much less which will win. This will take some brains.

[Mattrick]

I considered picking 32 films (10%), but with the rest of the rounds that would be 61 total predictions, and that's a lot. At least with the insurance picks you don't have to do any further tinkering with those after you pick them.

It would be one thing if we had like a week to actually fill out a bracket with the top 32 films going head-to-head to just wait and do a traditional bracket, but that's a pretty sizeable delay right in the meat of the tournament.

[Still Servant]

Thanks for doing this, Matt. It should be a lot of fun.

[DoctorZaius]

Yes, thank you.

[fernandito]

I'll get to this in the next day or two. :thumbsup:

[webstar1000]

That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?

[Mattrick]

That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?

I guess we'll see. I haven't filled it out yet...I shall on the beach next week. But I have 1 favorite for the winner right now. It will likely either be my pick or my backup pick.

[webstar1000]

That took a LONG time. hahaha I over thank it for sure. I went back and changed it many times. haha I think it is great and hope others take the time to fill it out. I wonder if anyone will guess the winner right?

I guess we'll see. I haven't filled it out yet...I shall on the beach next week. But I have 1 favorite for the winner right now. It will likely either be my pick or my backup pick.

I have many as favourites... I went with the love of the group.. and with a little luck... who knows? lol

[Mattrick]

I just wish I thought about doing this for the past few tournaments. Would've been cool to keep a running tally of points from tournament to tournament. Oh well, we still have more to go after this.

[webstar1000]

I hope more
Members take the 10-15 to do this. Too much fun!!

[mae]

Once the picks are all set can you disclose them? Curious to see what everyone selected.

[Still Servant]

I can give my Final Four.

IT
1922
Gerald's Game
Avengers: Endgame

[mae]

:biggrin1:

[mae]

Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.

[webstar1000]

Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.

I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.

[Mattrick]

Once the picks are all set can you disclose them? Curious to see what everyone selected.

I can.

And Engame is likely a surefire top 16 but I don't even think it's the best Avengers movie let alone the best MCU movie. Endgame excelled in putting a nice little cap on all the previous MCU films, but as a film it had a lot of issues that hampered it. It's #6 in the MCU for me.

[Mattrick]

Actually, I going to make a spreadsheet for everyone's picks that I'll update at the end of each round.

[Heather19]

Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.

I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.

Me too. My picks would be vastly different. That said, I still had a hard time choosing films.

[webstar1000]

Well I have my selections in but I'm sure by the end it will be wildly different. I do agree that Avengers: Endgame will go far, but I don't think it will be the ultimate winner.

I agree. I went with how I feel this group will bet.

Me too. My picks would be vastly different. That said, I still had a hard time choosing films.

Yeah me too. I thought of all my film pals here... then choose accordingly. MY list would be VERY diff. haha

[Still Servant]

Actually, I going to make a spreadsheet for everyone's picks that I'll update at the end of each round.

It's a Google Form, so you can pull a full report of everyone's selections. You can then share the sheet with us just like we do with the Google Sheet we use to keep track of nominations.

[Mattrick]

The forms spreadsheets are all backwards though. Easier to do it vertically rather than horizontal how forms makes their sheets.

[Mattrick]

I won't get that done until I'm back from vacation.

[Mattrick]

Im going to extend the deadline if people need more time. Another week or so.

[Mattrick]

Bumping this since it's likely to be buried anytime.

Deadline is extended until Friday (Aug 6th?) so get them in if you haven't. I'll get a spreadsheet up this coming weekend if I can.

[Mattrick]

I'll keep this open until tomorrow (Sunday). I'll get the spreadsheet made up sometime this week.

[Mattrick]

Apologies for the lateness on the spreadsheet, I've just been quite busy helping my brother get his condo ready to sell for the past few weeks. I should be wrapping up with that in the next few days so I'm aiming to have this done sometimes this coming week.

[webstar1000]

Excited to see how everyone is doing!

[Heather19]

I don't even remember what films I picked :lol:

[Mattrick]

Just in time for the Round of 32 and points to start, here is the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ytbZzaTJYb-PFB8q5K3YhDAnuhbYlUcn4QgMmRjPfnc/edit?usp=sharing


I'll leave this up as it is now so everyone can see everyone's picks. In a few days I'll go through and put a strike through any eliminated films and a zero in the score beside them.

Also I have made a slight alteration to the scoring. I originally had it so Insurance Films didn't earn points in the first round, but contributed to the bonus, but I'm going to swap that. So you will get a point if your Insurance Film is in the round of 16, but it will not count toward the bonus pts. It just makes more sense this way in retrospect.

NOTE - Someone picked The Dark Knight, which isn't in the tournament. I thought they meant The Dark Knight Rises, so I changed it. But they had Rises in Insurance Picks. So you have one voided pick and Rises was moved up to the Round of 16 so you don't have a void there. (It doesn't matter though because I believe Rises was just eliminated). Also, I think one or two people put an Insurance Film also in their top 16, so I voided the pick for insurance since it was redundant.

[DoctorZaius]

Just in time for the Round of 32 and points to start, here is the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ytbZzaTJYb-PFB8q5K3YhDAnuhbYlUcn4QgMmRjPfnc/edit?usp=sharing


I'll leave this up as it is now so everyone can see everyone's picks. In a few days I'll go through and put a strike through any eliminated films and a zero in the score beside them.

Also I have made a slight alteration to the scoring. I originally had it so Insurance Films didn't earn points in the first round, but contributed to the bonus, but I'm going to swap that. So you will get a point if your Insurance Film is in the round of 16, but it will not count toward the bonus pts. It just makes more sense this way in retrospect.

NOTE - Someone picked The Dark Knight, which isn't in the tournament. I thought they meant The Dark Knight Rises, so I changed it. But they had Rises in Insurance Picks. So you have one voided pick and Rises was moved up to the Round of 16 so you don't have a void there. (It doesn't matter though because I believe Rises was just eliminated). Also, I think one or two people put an Insurance Film also in their top 16, so I voided the pick for insurance since it was redundant.

Pretty stupid mistake on my part - sorry! The chart looks great!

[Mattrick]

I've updated the spreadsheet. All eliminated films (not including those eliminated so far this round) have been struck out with red font. After this round, advancing films will be in blue font and in Italics. Bonus points will be awarded on the spreadsheet going down, so every fourth film you predicted correctly will have a 2 beside it to indicate your bonus pt, excluding insurance picks, which do not count towards your bonus.

The think the final results of the final polls for this round are done on Wednesday so I'll have the spreadsheet updated with everyone's scores either that night or Friday.

[Mattrick]

I've mostly got the sheet updated if you want to look. I haven't finished making adjustments to Insurance picks yet. I got totally screwed on my insurance picks...I think 7 of them got beat out this last round. I'm the only one to not get any insurance picks through.

[amd013]

I'm unclear how insurance picks come into play in future rounds. I obviously didn't pick any of my insurance picks in later rounds. So is there a one-to-one mapping of an insurance pick replacing an eliminated movie? How do you determine the mapping?

EDIT: never mind, just looked at the updated sheet and see what you did, and it looks like I did actually choose an insurance pick in round 2 (probably because I wasn't able to reference back what was original and what was insurance in later rounds).

[webstar1000]

I cannot see any scores past the first round.. Can you just do a quick list of who is on top here maybe?

[Mattrick]

I'm unclear how insurance picks come into play in future rounds. I obviously didn't pick any of my insurance picks in later rounds. So is there a one-to-one mapping of an insurance pick replacing an eliminated movie? How do you determine the mapping?

EDIT: never mind, just looked at the updated sheet and see what you did, and it looks like I did actually choose an insurance pick in round 2 (probably because I wasn't able to reference back what was original and what was insurance in later rounds).

Basically how it worked is your insurance picks replace films from your 16 picks that are eliminated. The insurance picks are weighted, so the highest ranked insurance pick is top priority film for replacement in the event someone had 4 live insurance films, but only 2 slots open for them, it would decide which two are tossed in the bin for the remainder of the tournament. And because your insurance pick replaced an eliminated film, again going from top to bottom, your insurance pick replaces it...so if your Winner pick was eliminated before the the final 16, you now have a new winner pick.

Basically everyone got helped by their insurance picks...except for me where all 10 of my insurance picks were eliminated...7 of them in the round of 32. Fucking lame.

[Mattrick]

I haven't fully updated the sheet in terms of insurance picks replacing films, just been literally the busiest week of schoolwork in the past 10 days or so. But the scores are all set up. Reminder scoring for the round of 16 is 1 pt for each film you correctly predicted to make the final 16. A bonus pt was awarded for every 4 correct films, for a total of 20 pts. Correct insurance picks earn you a pt, but do not contribute towards the bonus pt.

Anything can happen yet. Some people still have 8 films alive...others have only 5 or 6. It will be interesting how this plays out.

I don't want to post the updates until near the end of the round. I highly doubt it will influence voting, but I'm delaying them anyways. The number in brackets is the amount of films each player has alive going into the quarter finals. A "W" means their winner prediction is alive. A "B" means their backup winner is alive". These numbers DO NOT reflect the round just now ending.

STANDINGS - Round of 16

1. Heather19 (6)(W)(B) - 12 pts
2. Still Servant (8)(W)(B) - 11 pts
3. Dr. Zaius (8)(W)(B) & Mae (5)(W) - 10 pts
4. Webstar1000 (6)(B) - 9 pts
5. Mattrick (4)(W) - 8 pts
6. amd013 (7)(W)(B) - 7 pts

[webstar1000]

VERY cool! Thanks man!~

[mae]

Heather in first place, as it should be :fairy:

[Still Servant]

Heather in first place, as it should be :fairy:

That's fine, especially since she's having trouble winning the Oscar contest recently. :P

[Mattrick]

Now that the semifinals have started, I'll update the standings tonight. I took a shellacking in round 1, but both my finals predictions are alive and currently leading...

[Mattrick]

UPDATE: you can see the spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ytbZzaTJYb-PFB8q5K3YhDAnuhbYlUcn4QgMmRjPfnc/edit?usp=sharing


NOTE - The Hateful Eight is in the Semi-Finals currently despite ZERO people picking it to make the final 16 or as an insurance pick.

NOTE 2 - The standings below will go as follows: Round of 16 standings (same as above), Quarter Finals Standings (excluding Rof16 scores), Semi-Finals Standings (excluding Rof16/QF scores), Overall Standings (Rof16/QFs/SFs combined)

NOTE 3 - Number of films left alive as of the QFs do not reflect the Quarter finals Scores...some people got a big boost from Insurance picks and had more films left alive than can fit in the Semi-Finals, so this number will reflect only the films still alive in the Semi-finals, so you may have gotten points for 5 films this round, but two of the your semi-finals picks are already eliminated.


STANDINGS - Round of 16

1. Heather19 (6)(W)(B) - 12 pts
2. Still Servant (8)(W)(B) - 11 pts
3. Dr. Zaius (8)(W)(B) & Mae (5)(W) - 10 pts
4. Webstar1000 (6)(B) - 9 pts
5. Mattrick (4)(W) - 8 pts
6. amd013 (7)(W)(B) - 7 pts


Quarter Finals Scores

1. Doctor Zaius - 12 pts
2. Still Servant - 10 pts
3. amd013, webstar1000 - 8 pts
5. mae, Mattrick - 6 pts
6. Heather19 - 4 pts


Overall Standings (going into Semi-Finals) - Number in Brackets = Films left alive, W = Winner left alive, B = Backup Winner left alive

1. DoctorZaius (2)(B) - 22 pts
2. Still Servant (3)(W) - 21 pts
3. webstar1000 (3)(W)(B) - 17 pts
4. Heather19 (0), mae (2)(W) - 16 pts
6. amd013 (3)(W) - 15 pts
7. Mattrick (2)(W) - 14 pts


Semi-Finals Standings

1. Still Servant - 9 pts
2. DoctorZaius, mae, Mattrick, Webstar - 6 pts
6. amd013 - 3 pts
7. Heather19 - 0 pts


Current Overall Standings (going into the final) NOTE - Alive films for the finals DO NOT count your backup winner pick since they get no points for making the finals

1. Still Servant (1)(W)(B) - 30 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 10

2. DoctorZaius (0)(B) - 28 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 3

3. webstar1000 (1)(W) - 23 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 10

4. mae (1)(W) - 22 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 10

5. Mattrick (2)(W) - 20 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 14

6. amd013 (1)(W) - 18 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 10

7. Heather19 (0) - 16 pts
Total Possible points remaining = 0




Who Can Win?

Since Hateful Eight was picked by no one, and A Quiet Place isn't anyone's pick for Winner/Backup Winner, or even anyone's pick in the finals, only two films matter: Mad Max and Inception

If Mad Max/Inception make the finals, and Mad Max Wins...

- Still Servant Wins
- Mae finishes Second
- Doctor Zaius/Mattrick tie for third

If Mad Max/Inception make the finals, and Inception Wins

- Still Servant Wins
- Mattrick Finishes Second
- webstar1000 Finishes third


Man...I really got screwed in that first round without a single insurance pick replacing any of my 16 picks. I'm the only one who currently has both their finals picks alive yet it is mathematically impossible for me to win....That is why I am declaring all insurance picks past the Round of 16 will NOT be counted. I WON, BY A LOT!

[Mattrick]

The insurance picks actually ended up making a massive influence on the standings.

Here are the total number of points each person earned from Insurance Picks, with the number in brackets being points that can still be earned in the finals.



amd103: 13 (10)
DoctorZaius: 10 (0)
Heather19: 4 (0)
mae: 7 (0)
Mattrick: 0 (0)
Still Servant: 8 (0)
webstar1000: 13 (10)

I definitely insurance picks ended up being a pretty solid idea even if they didn't help me at all! It kept some people alive and will ultimately decide the winner.

Let me know if y'all want to do this again for the next tournament, and if you're fine with this format of 16+10 (picks+insurance) or if you'd rather just pick 32 films and do away with insurance picks. I thought they worked well with the more unpredictable nature of these contemporary films performing, but may not play as well with films from the 70s where I presume there will be more classics that stand out. The 2010s proved to be quite a crap shoot. Even though most of us hovered around the same 30-35 films, there were definitely some films that bowed out early or lasted longer than any of us expected. Who seriously would have picked Deadpool to be the only surviving Superhero flick? Not me! I assumed an Avengers flick, Logan, or Spider-Verse were the most likely candidates for that! And clearly none of us expected Hateful Eight to advance so deep since no one picked it, and instead went with Django and Hollywood.

[webstar1000]

This was SO fun. I did ok:)

[mae]

Thanks, Matt. I run these tournaments all the time and have my spreadsheets but even so the math here is giving me headaches! I'm sure it was a lot of work. Thank you.

[Still Servant]

Very cool! Thank you for doing this!

[mae]

So what's the final verdict?

[Mattrick]

Final Scores:
1st - Still Servant (37 pts)
2nd - Mattrick (34 pts)
3rd - Webstar1000 (33 pts)
4th - DoctorZauis (31 pts)
5th - amd013 (28 pts)
6th - mae (26 pts)
7th - Heather19 (16 pts)




I'm going to run this again for the 70s tournament. Let me know if you want this same format of 16+10 insurance picks, or if you just want to pick 32>16>8 etc. I'm cool with either way, just going the 32>16 route is more work for you guys rather than myself so it's up to you all.

[mae]

Woo! Congrats to the big winners!

[Heather19]

Wow, congrats everyone! I didn't fair so well :lol:

[webstar1000]

I got 3rd!!!! Wow!!! That was so fun man. I hope we do this again dude! Thank you! I can’t believe I got 3rd! Lol

[Still Servant]

Final Scores:
1st - Still Servant (37 pts)
2nd - Mattrick (34 pts)
3rd - Webstar1000 (33 pts)
4th - DoctorZauis (31 pts)
5th - amd013 (28 pts)
6th - mae (26 pts)
7th - Heather19 (16 pts)




I'm going to run this again for the 70s tournament. Let me know if you want this same format of 16+10 insurance picks, or if you just want to pick 32>16>8 etc. I'm cool with either way, just going the 32>16 route is more work for you guys rather than myself so it's up to you all.

Thank you for doing this, Matt!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ADgb_s6ZSY