The road to the 2009-2010 Oscars!!

[Sam]

Sam, sorry to hear about your wife. I hope everything works out.

I was just wondering what films you thought should have won over some of these. Mainly Slumdog, Departed and Million Dollar Baby.

I hope you didn't want The Aviator to win over Baby. I really didn't think that was that good. I thought Letters From Iwo Jima could have beaten out The Departed, but I really loved The Departed. I know it seems like it's the victim of a lot of hate, but I don't really get it.

Also, Slumdog is a masterpiece. I honestly can't imagine any of the other films nominated beating it out.

You are right about Shakespeare in Love, one of the biggest blunders in Oscar history. Saving Private Ryan was clearly the better film.

My take on this years nominations:

I'm shocked by the Blind Side getting nominated. I haven't seen it yet, and I'm sure it's good, but I just don't think it's Oscar material.

I was happy to see District 9 get a nom. I think The Hurt Locker is going to win best picture.

Also, you heard it hear first-Tarrantino will win best director. My theory is as follows: Cameron and Bigelow will split the vote and QT will sneak in at the last second.

Here was my original list of wrong winners along with which film I felt SHOULD have won Best Picture.
Won: Should have won
Slumdog Millionare: Frost/Nixon
Crash: Good Night, and Good Luck (this was a weak nominee year in that I really didn't love any of the nominees. I did not see Munich.)
The Departed: Letters From Iwo Jima
Million Dollar Baby: Ray
Titanic: L.A Confidential or The Full Monty
Shakespeare in Love: Life is Beautiful (Saving Private Ryan was good, but I thought this film was so much better and more important than SPR)
The English Patient: ANY of the other films (Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets and Lies, and Shine. I prefer Shine, but all four were better films. The Birdcage was better than The English Patient... The Cable Guy was better than The English Patient)
Forrest Gump: Pulp Fiction or The Shawshank Redemption

I also thought The Green Mile deserved to win the awards for 1999, but I acknowledge that American Beauty actually WAS a good film.

Regarding this year's nominations, The Blind Side was a good film, but not Best Picture material. Bullock deserves the win for her role in the movie though. I am happy to see District 9 get the nod, but I truly wish there were only five nominees because I would like to believe District 9 would have made the short list, but now the world will never know .

[fernandito]

I thought Slumdog Millionaire was a decent movie, but nowhere near a masterpiece, nor deserving of the Oscar. And I'm still pissed that The Dark Knight wasn't even nominated for a Best Picture nod, which it most definitely deserved, just because it's a "comic book movie".

[turtlex]

Ray?
Sam, you felt Ray was a better movie than Million Dollar Baby?
I am actually super surprised. I found Ray to be an over-indulgent, lengthy movie. And I didn't think it was much more than mimicry on Jamie Foxx's part.

[Sam]

Yep, Ray was a better movie to me than Million Dollar Baby.
I thought Foxx's performance was spot on for Ray Charles, but more than that was the twitchy way he moved his body while the character was on heroin. That added layers to his performance. It's difficult to play the role of such a contemporary and iconic person though. If you get it right like Foxx did people may call it nothing but mimicry, but if you get it wrong, you're performance will be panned as absolute shit. That's a tough place to be in.

I'm not saying Million Dollar Baby was a bad film. I'm just saying I liked Ray better.

[Still Servant]

Sam, sorry to hear about your wife. I hope everything works out.

I was just wondering what films you thought should have won over some of these. Mainly Slumdog, Departed and Million Dollar Baby.

I hope you didn't want The Aviator to win over Baby. I really didn't think that was that good. I thought Letters From Iwo Jima could have beaten out The Departed, but I really loved The Departed. I know it seems like it's the victim of a lot of hate, but I don't really get it.

Also, Slumdog is a masterpiece. I honestly can't imagine any of the other films nominated beating it out.

You are right about Shakespeare in Love, one of the biggest blunders in Oscar history. Saving Private Ryan was clearly the better film.

My take on this years nominations:

I'm shocked by the Blind Side getting nominated. I haven't seen it yet, and I'm sure it's good, but I just don't think it's Oscar material.

I was happy to see District 9 get a nom. I think The Hurt Locker is going to win best picture.

Also, you heard it hear first-Tarrantino will win best director. My theory is as follows: Cameron and Bigelow will split the vote and QT will sneak in at the last second.

Here was my original list of wrong winners along with which film I felt SHOULD have won Best Picture.
Won: Should have won
Slumdog Millionare: Frost/Nixon
Crash: Good Night, and Good Luck (this was a weak nominee year in that I really didn't love any of the nominees. I did not see Munich.)
The Departed: Letters From Iwo Jima
Million Dollar Baby: Ray
Titanic: L.A Confidential or The Full Monty
Shakespeare in Love: Life is Beautiful (Saving Private Ryan was good, but I thought this film was so much better and more important than SPR)
The English Patient: ANY of the other films (Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets and Lies, and Shine. I prefer Shine, but all four were better films. The Birdcage was better than The English Patient... The Cable Guy was better than The English Patient)
Forrest Gump: Pulp Fiction or The Shawshank Redemption

I also thought The Green Mile deserved to win the awards for 1999, but I acknowledge that American Beauty actually WAS a good film.

Regarding this year's nominations, The Blind Side was a good film, but not Best Picture material. Bullock deserves the win for her role in the movie though. I am happy to see District 9 get the nod, but I truly wish there were only five nominees because I would like to believe District 9 would have made the short list, but now the world will never know .

I can understand all your choices here except for Life is Beautiful over Saving Private Ryan. I think 10 years latter SPR is the more memorable film. Life is Beautiful was good for the time being, but I just don't think it has the lasting power of something like SPR. I just don't think I'd watch it again.

I'm not saying that should be the basis for an Oscar winner or anything. At least you didn't think Shakespeare in Love should have won.

[Seymour_Glass]

Here's my take:

Slumdog should have been edgerd out by Milk. The Departed was damn fine, but I could exchange it for Little Miss Sunshine. Million Dollar Baby coulda been given to The Aviator or Ray. I totally agree about Crash. Chicago should've went to Gangs of new York, but that was a pretty weak year. None of the nominees in 1999 were right, except for American Beauty, which won. I mean, that year had Magnolia, Three kings, being John Malkovich and Fight Club, none of which saw a BP nom. Titanic and Forrest Gump were mistakes.

[Heather19]

I agree about the 1999 nominations. American Beauty deserved the win, and The Green Mile also deserved the nomination, but those other nominees? Definitely should have had Being John Malkovich and Fight Club in there.

And Forest Gump beating out both Pulp Fiction and Shawshank Redemption That's just not right.

[Sam]

I just got back from seeing Avatar, and I have to say that while the visuals were really great, the story lacked originality. I saw that movie when it was titled Dances With Wolves, and it was a better movie then. Special effects don't make a great film, and while this one was really enjoyable, at times I found myself watching with the realization that I was watching a movie and thinking that the editing room should have been used a little more often. It is overly long, and while the spectacle of the whole film will lead many to watch it over and over, in the end this film simply failed to capture me in the manner that the truly great films have. I'm not saying that Avatar doesn't deserve to be on the Best Picture nominee list, the visuals alone give it that right. What I am saying is that the Best Picture catagory is for the entire movie, spectacle, editing, direction, and the story, and Avatar simply doesn't deliver well enough in that last department to have earned the win. Do I think it will win? Yes, but it doesn't deserve it.

For a similar but far better and more original story of corporate corruption and one man's struggle against that corruption, watch District 9. For a movie about the struggle of one man who goes native against the forces he was once a part of, rent or buy Dances With Wolves. If you want to watch a special effects bonanza with blue creatures, an alien planet, and sights that can only be seen in our dreams and imaginations watch Avatar.

Good film, GREAT special effects, meh story.

[Melike]

I just got back from seeing Avatar, and I have to say that while the visuals were really great, the story lacked originality.

For a similar but far better and more original story of corporate corruption and one man's struggle against that corruption, watch District 9.

I don't need to say anything else.

[Still Servant]

As we get closer to the Oscars, I will be posting a thread where we can all give our picks for who we think is going to win EVERY award.

Whomever gets the most right wins. I have nothing to give you but respect.

It should be fun.

[Brice]

He's lying folks. He has homemade enchiladas.

[Still Servant]

No...they're store bought.

[Brice]

Oh, that sucks!









*grabs one.*

[turtlex]

Hurt Locker won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTA awards ( UK's Oscar equiv ).

[Melike]

Hurt Locker won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTA awards ( UK's Oscar equiv ).

I must confess that I am happy it made it through other nominations like Avatar and Up in the Air.

And Christoph Waltz won Best Supporting Actor.

[turtlex]

Hurt Locker won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTA awards ( UK's Oscar equiv ).

I must confess that I am happy it made it through other nominations like Avatar and Up in the Air.

And Christoph Waltz won Best Supporting Actor.

You and me, both, my friend.

I hope this is a preview of Oscar night here in the US.

[fernandito]

Last year, Slumdog Millionaire and Danny Boyle won the the BAFTA awards for Best Movie and Best Director, respectively.

A sign of things to come, mayhap ? ...

[Melike]

I hope so...

[Seymour_Glass]

I finally saw the hurt Locker, and now i have to say I will be almost as happy if it wins as i would be for Up in the Air. Better not be no Avatar.

[Hannah]

I didn't think Avatar was that bad, but I don't see it as a serious contender for the Oscar. It was good, but that didn't take away from it's cheesy factor which it had in abundance.

I have the Hurt Locker at home on Blu Ray - maybe I can convince Aaron to watch it with me (although first I will have to pry the Wii controller out of his hand).

[Heather19]

Hurt Locker won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTA awards ( UK's Oscar equiv ).

I must confess that I am happy it made it through other nominations like Avatar and Up in the Air.

And Christoph Waltz won Best Supporting Actor.

You and me, both, my friend.

I hope this is a preview of Oscar night here in the US.

Make that 3
Although I still have yet to see The Hurt Locker

[fernandito]

Ebert's 2010 Oscar Predictions:
BY ROGER EBERT / February 19, 2010


I can't remember a year when it seemed easier to predict the Oscars. Those words may come back to haunt me, but there you have it. Of the top eight categories, seven look like sure things. The only dicey one is best picture, and although “Avatar” may roll in on its record-breaking profits, I think it's a win for “The Hurt Locker.”

How did this happen? In a year when the best picture category had been doubled to 10 nominees? And when every year there are categories everyone seems to guess wrong?

(1) The expanded category dilutes the vote, and probably works in favor of the front-runners, which are “Up in the Air,” “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar.” (2) The year-end awards have mostly been in unusual agreement with the critics' groups, creating a bandwagon effect.

One possible game-changer: This year, the academy is introducing a weighted ballot in the best picture category. Voters will be asked to arrange the 10 films in order of preference. In previous years, you voted for one film and it got one vote. This year, every film will take away something from every ballot. What will this mean in practice? Search me.

Some gurus claim it will work to the advantage of films running close to, but not at the head of, the pack. I'm not a statistician of odds. Those guys work in Vegas. Real money depends on their odds. This year, it could get complicated. My instinct is that the picture Vegas ends up betting on should have a very good chance of winning.

If you want to win the office pool, you're going to have to do it with categories further down in the list, and even some of those look like shoo-ins. In my Outguess Ebert contest, with its smaller number of categories, it may come down to the tie-breakers: Which film will win the most oscars, and how many will it win?

Here we go:

Picture

“Up in the Air” was the front-runner much of the autumn. It's a movie from and of these times, about unemployment. George Clooney stars as a man whose job is firing other people. There really are such “termination facilitators,” and director Jason Reitman used many real people who had just been fired in real life.

Kathryn Bigelow's “The Hurt Locker,” with Jeremy Renner as a bomb-disposal expert in Iraq, opened in July to great praise but was considered a dark horse because of its low budget, lower profile and earlier release date. Then it started sweeping up year-end awards and many more people saw it. I think it's the current favorite.

James Cameron's “Avatar” you know all about. The top-grossing movie in history, and also a very good film and a sensational experience. But will academy voters cast their ballots on that basis?

The crucial factors may be “The Hurt Locker's” recent victories in two guild awards: It has been honored for best direction and best production. In many years, the Directors Guild winner is a predictor of the best picture Oscar. Of these three, I'm predicting “The Hurt Locker.” If one of the other seven wins, let's say I'll be very surprised.

Actor

Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart.” The movie opened late in December and moved out more widely in January. But the distributor, Fox Searchlight, made a wise move: They screened it extensively in advance for movie critics and sent out lots of screeners. Bridges' great performance swept the critics' awards, won a Golden Globe, a SAG award and now looks like the winner. Jeremy Renner or George Clooney could win, but Bridges has the momentum.

Actress

Few people saw this one coming, especially in a year where her two earlier pictures bombed, but Sandra Bullock's comeback in “The Blind Side” was dazzling, and she also collected a lot of year-end awards. Meryl Streep was thought to be the front-runner for “Julie & Julia,” but Oscar likes a comeback role, and Streep has never needed one.

Supporting actor

Christoph Waltz, a relative unknown, won the best actor award at Cannes in May 2009 for “Inglourious Basterds” and has never looked back. I don't know of anyone who doesn't expect him to win this category. A sure thing.

Supporting actress

Here again, what looks like a sure thing: Mo'Nique, for her powerful performance as the mother in “Precious.” Known primarily as a TV personally and comic, she came, in a way, out of nowhere to create a character who was a damaged, cruel woman. The other four nominees were all very, very good, but Mo'Nique will win.

Director

If you vote against Kathryn Bigelow of “The Hurt Locker,” you'll be going against years of precedent that say the winner of the Directors Guild Award will win the Oscar.

Original screenplay

Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds.” Who else would have the audacity to rewrite World War II? Tarantino remains a uniquely individual filmmaker, admired as a craftsman and visionary. There's a possibility of an upset in this category if Mark Boal benefits from an Oscar sweep for “The Hurt Locker,” but my money is on QT.

Adapted screenplay

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for “Up in the Air.” I think it's the best of the five nominees, but more important, perhaps, this category gives academy members a chance to vote for what many of them consider the second best film of the year, and some consider the best.

Animated film

“Up,” everyone seems to agree. After it premiered at Cannes, it was for a time considered as a possibility for best picture. Critics would prefer “Coraline.” The possible dark horse here is “The Secret of Kells,” a film that has still to open widely in America. All of the academy members will have had the chance to see it via screeners or on DVD, however, and I'm told it is very good.

Documentary

A race between “The Cove,” about the Japanese slaughter of dolphins, and “Food, Inc.,” a harrowing film about the American food industry, dominated by corporations that place profits ahead of nutrition and farmers. But, along with most others, I haven't seen the other three nominees. On the basis of what I know, I think the winner will be “The Cove.”

Foreign language film

I've seen three of the five. The voters are required to see all five. That's how the unseen “Departures” from Japan surprised everyone by winning this category last year. It turned out the voters may have been right, and “Departures” was one of the year's best films. This year, I believe “The White Ribbon,” an oblique parable by Michael Haneke set in Germany in the years before World War I, is just about certain to win.

Cinematography

Mauro Fiore seems likely to win for the technical mastery and emotional impact of his work in “Avatar,” which raised the bar for 3-D technology. Robert Richardson's work in “Inglourious Basterds” is the best classical cinematography in this category, I think, but Hollywood, infatuated with 3-D, will think otherwise.

OK. Regarding the categories above, I have (or think) I have reasons for my predictions. In the categories below, I think of myself more in the category of your average office-pool entrant. When the results are in, I suspect I'll do better with the picks above than those below. One year I scored something like 95 percent, but I have no idea how I did it.

Art direction

“Avatar,” don't you think?

Costume design

In “Coco Before Chanel,” the costumes were instrumental, and Catherine Leterrier's work might have drawn even Chanel's grudging approval.

Film editing

Here, I'm going for “The Hurt Locker,” because so much of the film's appeal depended on the precise timing and arrangement of shots. Well, that's true of all films, but in this one it became unusually important.

Sound editing

“Inglourious Basterds.”

Makeup

“Star Trek,” I suppose.

Original score

I'm gonna say “Up.” I'm probably gonna be wrong.

Original song

I'm going with “The Weary Kind” (from “Crazy Heart”), with music and lyrics by Ryan Bingham and
T Bone Burnett.

Visual effects

“Avatar,” don't you think?

[fernandito]

Less than a week left !

[Heather19]

Less than a week left !

Now head on over to the other thread and make your picks! I've been waiting for you.

[fernandito]

I was going to come in here and say how I found the lack of post-Oscar talk disturbing ...

Spoiler:

... but then I realized, there isn't much to discuss. All of the favorites won out : Christopher Waltz took home the hardware for his brilliant, ruthless portrayal of Hans Landa. Katheryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker were awarded for being the best director and best picture of last year, respectively. I haven't seen The Blind Side or Crazy Heart, but both Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock have been amassing nothing but praise from both critics and fans alike. The only surprise/upset that I can see is Avatar winning for best cinematography , something I'm sure has upset one or two of you ...

As for the show itself, I enjoyed it. I felt that Martin and Baldwin had great chemistry together, and they were entertaining for the time that they were in front of the camera.

Here's to hoping that next years awards are a bit tighter in all facets of competition so that it makes for a more suspensful show.