Fantasy Movie League (who knew?)

[Mattrick]

I'm seeing The Martian finally on Sunday, followed by Spotlight. A solid double feature! I'd see Crimson Peak too and make it a triple feature, but then I'd have to see a 10:30 show and wouldn't have a way home besides cab, plus Walking Dead, so I hope Crimson Peak is still in theatres soon as I really want to see it on the big screen. I think I'll miss it though, and I'll have to wait for the next promising horror flick to get released...so sometime in 2020.

[Still Servant]

I'm seeing The Martian finally on Sunday, followed by Spotlight. A solid double feature! I'd see Crimson Peak too and make it a triple feature, but then I'd have to see a 10:30 show and wouldn't have a way home besides cab, plus Walking Dead, so I hope Crimson Peak is still in theatres soon as I really want to see it on the big screen. I think I'll miss it though, and I'll have to wait for the next promising horror flick to get released...so sometime in 2020.

Sounds like a good day to me. Be warned - Crimson Peak is barely a horror film.

[Mattrick]

I'd be disappointed if it weren't a gothic romance. I'm a sucker for those, which is why I bought Jane Eyre on DVD the other day. If it's like Jane Eyre+ghost story I'm happy.

[Heather19]

For some reason I thought you already saw it Matt? I'll be curious of your thoughts once you do.

[Mattrick]

So Heather and Shannon went with the 3 peanuts option. I was considering that, but I didn't feel any of the films I could fill my theatre with would make enough to justify it, and I don't think many of the cheap films have a solid chance at the bonus. I considered going Michaels route with 1 Spectre and 7 Martians, but Bond will probably take at 50% dive and end up around 30-35 million. I estimated Peanuts will close the weekend out around 30-32 million, so two peanuts seemed the smarter choice. Martian should do between 6.5 and 7.5 million, and Bridge of Spies will probably bring in about 4 million, so I should end up with about 95 million.

[Heather19]

I'm betting on Peanuts taking the bonus, so I wanted in as many screens as I could get. I'm hoping for nothing more than a 30% drop.
Also looking at the top 100, my lineup was the one that was used the most. It doesn't say much, but I'm hoping for a very solid week at least. Without the bonus I was thinking I'd make just over a million hopefully. Fingers crossed I'm not too far off.

[Mattrick]

Ouch Heather, and it's odd I'm saying that for someone who currently has 6 million in bonus. With Peanuts underperforming, that bonus doesn't really help you out at all :/

At the moment I've got an estimated 6 million lead on you and a 14 million lead on Shannon. Even if Hotel Transylvania gets the bonus I might get my first win! My cineplex is currently getting the perfect cinema bonus too, there appears to be some discrepancy over what the PC actually is, 2xPeanuts, 4xMartian, 2xBridge of Spies or 2xSpectre, 6xLastWitchHunter

[Shannon]

Woot woot, finally ahead. But will it hold. Dah dah daaaaaaaaah!

[Mattrick]

The discrepancy with the Perfect Cinema is that mine is be awarded it. There is no theatre with high box office than mine without the BP bonus being factored in. The only two theatres that can beat mine with the BP bonus factored in is Heather's set up and 2xSpectre, 6xTLWH...so if the BP bonus goes to anything but HT2 or TLWH, I automatically win and get the PC bonus. So I'm currently cheering on Bridge of Spies to get that bonus to be my insurance, or anything else, really. Paranormal Activity is the only other one like LWH estimated to go over the ratio that 1:1 ratio limit for BP bonus, so that stands the best chance at taking the bonus if LWH actuals come in lower.

The best part is that since I'm not relying on the bonus for anything, even if I lose the PC bonus, I'm still sitting at 82.5M estimated

[Heather19]

Oh man, my estimate for Peanuts was way off. If it only makes 23mil that's almost a 50% drop! I'm hoping it brings in a bit more money over the weekend to boost it up a little higher. Still won't get the bonus but hopefully one of my other two films will.

And Matt, I was so excited for you when I saw your estimate. Hope it holds up for you and you get a win. Is your current estimate with the 10mil bonus added in already?

[Mattrick]

Yeah, that has the perfect cinema bonus. It's funny, Bond, BoS and The Martian are all slightly ahead with of my estimates, but I estimated Peanuts to get 30M or just under.

[Shannon]

Sorry buddy

[Mattrick]

The good news: My raw box office estimate increased by almost 2 million. The bad news is LWH will get the bonus and I won't win the week, but que sera sera. There are people trying to change the perfect cinema bonus to include only raw box office numbers, or 5 million for each (or both in some cases). The perfect cinema is estimated at 77.3M raw box office (2xSpectre, 6xLWH) compared to my 83.3M, but with bonuses included, the current perfect cinema earns an extra 28 million (105.3M total) for making less money than several other setups. On a week like this, people who picked 6 bonus films would still get 18M extra, and those who earned highest box office would get an extra 10M, as opposed to one getting 28M extra. I can see why people want it changed but I'm too new to really have an opinion.

Also, now that they've started ranking those in the second half league, I'm the top 10% in that WOOT WOOT

We need to start taking bets who will win this duke out between Shannon and Heather. My money is the Oscar Queen.

[Heather19]

Matt what number are you in the second half league? I'm at 231, but I can't find a ranking for that league alone. I did just bump up to the top 98% overall. Each week I go a little higher. Is there a way to see how you've done over the course of all the weeks, or do we just need to keep track ourselves?

Also do you guys use FMLnerds comparator site. I've definitely found it helpful.

[Mattrick]

I just use Boxofficemojo.com For the second half league I am rank 442 out of 3649 people. Out of week all week 1 starters I am rank 3227 of 12299. I'm out of the top ten percent in both. For this week, though, I'm 665 of 11112, so that's pretty much top 5% (y)

[Still Servant]

I don't use any sites. I just go by feel.



I will be finding a site for the upcoming season.

[Shannon]

I just wanna know what sbaldelli and Doctor Dodge are doing. lol

[Shannon]

"We need to start taking bets who will win this duke out between Shannon and Heather."

Unless she fucks up (not likely), Heather wins. I was ahead, I was ahead, I was ahead, and in one week, she jumped over fifty million bucks ahead of me. Fucking Jem.

[Merlin1958]

"We need to start taking bets who will win this duke out between Shannon and Heather."

Unless she fucks up (not likely), Heather wins. I was ahead, I was ahead, I was ahead, and in one week, she jumped over fifty million bucks ahead of me. Fucking Jem.

Hey, you kiss you mother with that mouth? LOL J/K LOL

Don't worry, Heather I have your back!! LOL

I just wish I had a freaking clue how this works!! I just keep plodding ahead with little or no gain. I am looking forward to the next season so I can really explore the depths of my mediocrity!! LOL LOL

[Heather19]

We need to recruit some more members to join our league. The more the merrier.

[Shannon]

Funny thing is, I had the #2 lineup (spectrex2, witchx6) locked in as my first choice, and then changed from that to my current one at the last second. Would have been $94,256,986.

Booooo.

Doing my next week lineup now, and going to try and be the first to lock in with it in an hour and a half when the gates open.`

[Shannon]

Well shit, wasn't expecting that.

[Mattrick]

Hard to say what the best strategy is. I think I like the way I went, though.

[Still Servant]

I just wanna know what sbaldelli and Doctor Dodge are doing. lol

My sister forgot to enter it this week. She's been pretty good about entering for the most part. Hopefully we can get James to play more consistently for the next season. I think your biggest beef is with Fernando. He has yet to pick a lineup.

We need to recruit some more members to join our league. The more the merrier.

I agree. With a new season right around the corner, feel free to spread the word. If you have any family or friends, feel free to invite them.

Hard to say what the best strategy is. I think I like the way I went, though.

I don't know what to make of this week. Very interesting.

[Heather19]

Well I didn't forsee that, but I think it might make things interesting. I put a lineup in last night, but not too sure about it. I'll probably switch it around by the end of the week.