Firestarter S/L: # copies on each date
NOTE: The newest update will always be at the very bottom of this first post
We started having a conversation in the Current Market Value thread about the number of copies that were signed on each date. I think it's a pretty neat problem and I'm wondering if we can compile a more accurate list than has been put together so far.
The assumption going into this is that the books were signed sequentially, so, for example, if #170 was dated July 6, then any copies with a greater number must have been signed on the 6th or later.
I made a preliminary pass from the data on stephenkingcollector.com that amd013 helpfully posted, which was the following:
Quote:
Originally Posted by stephekingcollector.com
This is my logic: if the highest number for July 5 was #109 and the lowest for July 6 was #167, we know that there are at least 109 copies signed on the 5th (because copy 110 could have theoretically been the first one signed on the 6th) and at most 166 copies signed on the 5th (because copy #167 was definitely signed on the 6th). Other numbers are extrapolated from there.
This led to the following estimated number of copies signed on each day:
July 5: 109-166
July 6: 200-264
July 7: 215-241
July 8: 116-136
RF kindly pointed me to the catalog, which shows that #163 was signed on July 6th.
This results in the following updated ranges:
July 5: 109-162 copies signed (15-22% of all copies)Minimum number = 1
Maximum number = 109-162
July 6: 206-264 copies signed (28-36% of all copies)Minimum number = 110-163
Maximum number = 367-373
July 7: 216-241 copies signed (30-33% of all copies)Minimum number = 368-374
Maximum number = 589-608
July 8: 116-136 copies signed (16-19% of all copies) Minimum number = 590-609
Maximum number = 725
I would love to hear everyone's numbers, but especially those that fall in any of the missing ranges: 110-162, 368-373, 590-608. I know that there are a few people who have the whole set and a few people with multiples, so don't be shy! Also I'm betting that there are some folks out there who have knowledge of previous sales and auctions that can help out.
While I'm eager to hear what people recollect, I won't change the numbers based on "I'm pretty sure I remember", etc., I will only change it if you have the book in hand or some other valid proof like a screenshot or spreadsheet that you keep. I don't need to see it (unless you want to post it!), I just don't want to make updates based on memory alone.
Rumors are fun so it would be interesting to have people share what they've heard :)
And feel free to repost pics of your own copies here! :excited:
I'll update the current range in the section below, as new data comes in:
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MOST RECENT ESTIMATES, 3/28/2018
July 5: 109-162 copies signed (15-22% of all copies)Minimum number = 1
Maximum number = 109-162
July 6: 206-264 copies signed (28-36% of all copies)Minimum number = 110-162
Maximum number = 367-373
July 7: 216-241 copies signed (30-33% of all copies)Minimum number = 368-374
Maximum number = 589-608
July 8: 116-136 copies signed (16-19% of all copies) Minimum number = 590-609
Maximum number = 725
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MOST RECENT ESTIMATES, 12/13/2019
Based on updated SK Collector numbers, which I don't love as I can't verify them, but c'est la vie
July 5: 125-162 copies signed (17-22% of all copies)Minimum number = 1
Maximum number = 126-162
July 6: 206-264 copies signed (28-36% of all copies)Minimum number = 110-162
Maximum number = 367-373
July 7: 216-241 copies signed (30-33% of all copies)Minimum number = 368-374
Maximum number = 589-608
July 8: 116-136 copies signed (16-19% of all copies) Minimum number = 590-609
Maximum number = 725
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MOST RECENT ESTIMATES, 6/2/2020
Based on a recently posted picture of #593 being signed on July 7th
July 5: 125-162 copies signed (17-22% of all copies)Minimum number = 1
Maximum number = 126-162
July 6: 206-264 copies signed (28-36% of all copies)Minimum number = 110-162
Maximum number = 367-373
July 7: 216-241 copies signed (30-33% of all copies)Minimum number = 368-374
Maximum number = 593-608
July 8: 116-136 copies signed (16-18% of all copies) Minimum number = 594-609
Maximum number = 725
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MOST RECENT ESTIMATES, 6/2/2020 UPDATE 2
Based on forum member Ivo sharing that #597 is from July 7th
Adding a decimal to the percentages, now that we're at the races :)
(Also fixed a small error)
July 5: 125-162 copies signed (17.2-22.3% of all copies)Minimum number = 1
Maximum number = 125-162
July 6: 205-247 copies signed (28.3-34.1% of all copies)Minimum number = 126-162
Maximum number = 367-373
July 7: 223-240 copies signed (30.8-33.1% of all copies)Minimum number = 368-374
Maximum number = 597-608
July 8: 116-127 copies signed (16.0-17.5% of all copies) Minimum number = 598-609
Maximum number = 725
